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    2.  首页 股票学校 股票入门 选股 买入 看盘 跟庄 短线 炒股技巧 技术指标 k线图 MACD 均线 成交量 股票书籍 股票视频 网站导航

      767股票学习网 > 股票学校 > 成交量 > 正文

      股票量价关系原理(图解)

        影响股票市场价格变化的因素是多方面的。但是,决定股价涨跌的主要力量仍然是来自股票市场自身的买卖活动。如市场出现利多消息后,如果没有人入市购买股票,行情也不会上涨或者狂升。当重大的利空消息出现后,如果没有人抛售股票,价格也就不会下降和暴跌。股票买卖活动规模的大小是通过每日股票的成交量和庄家及跟庄者的持仓量来反映的。因此,对股票市场量价关系的研究实质上是动力和方向的研究。成交量和持仓量是动力,价格走势是方向。

        在量价的基本研判上,股价的上涨需要不断出现愿意追逐高价的后续资金,形成成交量、持仓量和股价同时上升的局面。股价的下跌和资金的撤离,形成成交量、持仓量和价格持续下跌的局面。这种正常的“价涨量增,价跌量缩”的同步情况,并不需要特别加以注意。应该特别引起注意的是在“量价背离”的情况下,如何进行买卖股票的操作。“量价背离”的情况说明追高意愿的后续资金不足,随时可能反转。因此,广大中小散户只要能把量价关系研究好了,就可以避免掉进庄家和跟庄者的多头陷阱或空头陷阱,从而保证自己的操作成功。

        在正常的情况下,股价的变化与成交量的变化成正比关系。这就是说,股价升高,成交量增加,股价下跌成交量下降。

        假设一只股票的流通股是1亿股,股价从10元连续10天投机拉升到25.90元,每天投机拉升10%。在庄家和跟庄者控股的情况下,庄家和跟庄者也只能购买当日成交量一半的股票,其余的股票则被散户买走。采用T+1交易制,即今日买的股票,第二日才能卖出。当散户头一天买进股票后,第二天股价被投机拉升,产生了获利筹码。我们设定两种情况:第一种情况是散户全部卖出获利筹码;第二种情况是散户仅卖出一半获利筹码。

        (一) 第一种情况:股票被庄家和跟庄者全部控制

        在股票被庄家和跟庄者全部控制的情况下,只有庄家和跟庄者持有股票,股市上没有该股票流通。其结果是:连续10天空量上涨每天收出一字线。每日成交量为100手,这100手全部是庄家和跟庄者卖出(庄家和跟庄者用于投机拉升股票的价格)的股票。大家知道,买卖双方有交易才能有股价的确定。因此,此种情况说明庄家和跟庄者仅用100手便可任意控制股价的升降。从第一日起便出现量价严重背离,走出无量上升走势,如图4-1所示。

       

        图4-1 股票被庄家和跟庄者全部控制

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